The 2021 was very dynamic on the credit and loan market in Poland

The 2021 was very dynamic on the credit and loan market in Poland. The optimistic scenario of activity in the financial market came true and positively surprised the market. Credit sale in 2021 reached the total value of PLN 187.6 billion and was 33% higher than in 2020.

It’s worth emphasizing that this result was influenced by bank loans granted for high amounts in all credit products. From the perspective of the whole credit portfolio, mortgages played a dominant role. Poles, whose creditworthiness was then high due to low interest rates, were more inclined to take out loans. High prices on the real estate market have raised the value of loan application. The average amount of mortages increased last year by 14% y/y.

The forecast for 2022 seems to be less optimistic. According to the results of opinion polls carried for BIK, 64% of Poles are concerned about the current increases of interest rates and the perspective of further raises. This will affect the creditworthiness of those who plan to apply for bank financing in the future. For 80% of respondents, a cause of their concern is also the increase in fixed maintenance costs, gas, electricity and water bills.

What will affect the credit market this year is closely related to variability and uncertainy about the future economic, pandemic and fiscal situation. Although we still estimate the sales of loans in 2022 at a high level, we do not expect to break any records. We even assume a decline of 10% in the value of mortgage loans granted, we estimate a moderate increase in installment loans gently above 5%, and in cash loans – we predict a return to pre-pandemic levels and a slight upward trend of 3-5%.

Author:

Rafał Bednarek, Vice-President of the Management Board, Biuro Informacji Kredytowej S.A.

Last Updated on March 31, 2022 by Anastazja Lach